Dear Investors,
Happy summer! Hopefully, as you’re reading this investor letter, you’re sitting by the pool with your feet up, sipping a cold drink while watching your kids splash in the pool.
Summer is traditionally peak leasing season for multifamily, and this year is no different. While new real estate investment volume and new loan originations are down, we’ve seen absolutely no decrease in demand for multifamily housing.
In fact, if anything, more people are clamoring to move in, and we’re seeing this across the Goodegg Portfolio.
For example, Waterleigh at Leland in Wilmington, NC, is at 96.3% occupancy, Mission Antigua in Tucson, AZ, is at 95.2%, and Congaree Villas in Columbia, SC, is at 97.7%.
In nearly all of our markets, we have seen an uptick in leasing traffic, increase in occupancy and a decrease in concessions. Demand is growing!
Of course, this is not to say that multifamily is all roses everywhere. We’re certainly seeing significant slowdowns, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
However, because of our strategically chosen markets, conservative underwriting, and strong ongoing asset management, we’re continuing to see strong performance across the Goodegg Portfolio, which continues to outperform greater macro market trends.
Over the last several months and even years, we’ve seen the writing on the wall and knew that this time was coming – this time of tremendous transition but also tremendous opportunity (if you’re in the right place and know where to look).
First, in years past, as we saw multifamily demand increasing, combined with rock-bottom interest rates and interest-only loans being offered left and right, we saw cap rates compressing and multifamily values increasing as a result.
Then, more recently, within the last year or so, as interest rates have risen and bank fallouts have ensued, we’ve seen lending restrictions tightening as a result.
What this means is that, in the current environment, tight lending restrictions are increasing our exposure to risk when it comes to new investments.
And at Goodegg, we’ve always been extremely careful when it comes to weighing the risks of new opportunities, as we want to ensure we’re always placing top priority on the protection of your capital.
As we look to new multifamily acquisitions, we are being extra cautious as we consider lending requirements, which could put new investments at risk.
Our focus has been on assuming loans with in-place low fixed rates, as a way to decrease risk. However, the loan assumption process can sometimes extend the acquisition process, which is why some of our acquisitions in progress are taking longer to close than previous acquisitions.
While we continue to evaluate multifamily opportunities, we are also seeing a new emerging opportunity in the market, which we wanted to share with you.
Currently, we’re seeing more and more multifamily owners and operators face loan maturities and rate cap expirations on floating rate debt, which can spell trouble in this rising interest rate environment. Many of these owners are looking to creative financing solutions to ensure that their assets can stay afloat.
For example, if a team had acquired a multifamily asset a few years ago with floating debt and an interest rate cap, and that interest rate cap is expiring in 2023, the current interest rate environment is drastically different from when they first got that loan.
Given that now is also not the ideal time to sell, they might need to find creative re-financing solutions to stay afloat.
This is where the opportunity comes in. We’re seeing more and more opportunities to potentially come in alongside these operators as preferred (pref) equity and help fill these financing gaps.
This would allow us and our investors a prime position in the capital stack and allow operators to keep their otherwise strong performing assets afloat. A win-win!
This is an opportunity we are seriously exploring right now, and if all goes according to plan, we intend to launch a pref equity investment opportunity for you later in Q3.
In the meantime, kick back, take a sip of that cool drink, and enjoy the rest of our quarterly investor updates below, regarding the state of the market, current acquisitions, asset management, and more.
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Q3 2023 Multifamily Outlook
We’re not going to sugarcoat it for you – the first half of 2023 has been marked by sluggish sales volume within all property types. Like molasses slow. 😪
And as a result, new investment opportunities (especially those that make any kind of sense) have been slow as well.
According to CBRE’s Q2 market report, US commercial real estate investment volume fell by 57% year-over-year versus 2022. Interest rates have continued to climb, and average cap rates have remained relatively low in most markets.
This combination has resulted in a drop in new loan originations. CMBS loan volumes have dropped by a staggering 73% year-over-year as of mid June. 😳
Commercial real estate brokerage firms have taken the brunt of the short-term effects of this downturn. Many of the country’s largest brokerage organizations have been forced to take significant steps to minimize expenses over the near term while stock prices continue to falter.
Talk about a wonky market out there. 😵💫 So if you’re feeling like things are a bit “off,” you’re not alone.
There are a lot of financial forces at play, and we’re continuing to keep an eye on everything that’s going on so we can make the right moves at the right times.
Vacancies & Rental Rates
The bright spot within commercial real estate has been multifamily. The market has seen a number of positive trends since Q1 2023.
According to CBRE, the overall multifamily vacancy rate has increased by 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter. This was significantly less than the 70-bp increase in Q4 2022 and the 90-bp jump back in Q2 2022.
This indicates that supply and demand dynamics for multifamily are beginning to stabilize. Additionally, net absorption has shown improvement since Q1 2023 and is expected to turn positive as we continue through Q3 2023 and beyond.
Specific to rental rates, the multifamily market has proven to be surprisingly buoyant. National average monthly net effective rent increased by a surprising 4.5% year-over-year in Q1 and 4.0% in Q2.
This is down from the record 15.3% increase in Q1 2022, but well above the pre-Covid average of 2.7%. With peak leasing season now underway, multifamily rental growth is expected to continue through Q3.
As expected, rental growth is still fairly consistent in the Sun Belt states, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters. According to Costar, the biggest winners in terms of rental growth over the past two quarters are in the Midwest, which is a region we’re keeping our eye on.
Indianapolis has seen the largest year-over-year growth with a whopping 6.1%. In fact, the Midwest region took six of the top 10 rent growth spots in Q2. Some of the shining stars were Cincinnati, Columbus, and even Chicago. The only Sun Belt market to break into this elite top ten list was Miami.
New Multifamily Construction
As demand for multifamily continues to grow throughout the country, we are keeping a close eye on new deliveries over the next 6 months.
According to Costar, multifamily completions are on track to top 520,000 units for 2023. This would be the highest number of deliveries in one year since the late 1980s.
Spurred on by attractive financing that was in place prior to the recent volatility in the capital markets, key growth markets are expecting significant deliveries of new units.
Many of these projects began well before any of the regression in the market and were conceived to match the unprecedented national demand for multifamily projects.
The market for development is expecting a downward shift as loans continue to be increasingly more expensive for developers. All indications show that multifamily starts will likely taper off later in 2023.
In fact, multifamily permitting is already seeing a rapid decrease. For example, May 2023 was down 11.9% compared with a year earlier.
While we expect these new deliveries to affect short-term leasing activity, demand due to population growth is predicted to expand. As construction deliveries begin to level off, rental rates are expected to see continued increases as supply struggles to match continued growth.
As reported previously, CBRE predicts that nearly 3.5 million new market-rate multifamily units will be needed by 2035 to keep pace with overall demand throughout the US.
With all the multifamily assets in the existing Goodegg Portfolio, as well as the criteria for new multifamily acquisitions we are adhering to, we are well positioned to take advantage of this huge market opportunity.
Loan Maturities
Multifamily markets saw strong velocity in the post-Covid years. A combination of rapid rental growth and low interest rates inspired tremendous acquisition volume.
The national multifamily market drew in sponsorship groups of all shapes and sizes to make investments at ever-larger numbers. Valuations during 2021 and into mid-2022 seemed to have no ceiling while demand pushed rental rates to record levels.
As we entered the later months of 2022 and welcomed in 2023, this atmosphere of easy money took a dramatic turn. The Fed’s decisive efforts to raise interest rates caught many investors somewhat by surprise.
Although many hedged themselves by taking advantage of rate caps, there were a large number that either did not have the same foresight or did not have the funds to do so. With monthly debt service doubling for many operators, cash flow has completely disappeared for many properties.
This reality is especially daunting when considering the number of multifamily loans that are coming due over the next 12 months.
According to a recent report from Gray Capital, there are $8 billion in CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) loans backed by multifamily properties scheduled to mature between October and November alone.
Many of these owners have experienced depressed valuations and will have difficulty renewing or renegotiating their loans unless they bring cash to the table.
As cash flows have deteriorated over the past number of months, this may simply be impossible for many owners.
However, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that lenders should work with commercial borrowers facing stress in the current environment, particularly those with strong performing assets, to minimize the overall macroeconomic impact.
As a side note, we have taken measures to reduce or temporarily pause cash flow distributions on select properties within the Goodegg Portfolio in order to bolster reserves in this uncertain time.
As you can imagine, during times like this, asset management becomes critical in protecting both your investment and the health of each asset.
We believe that taking proactive measures like voluntarily pausing cash flow will ultimately serve to strengthen the health of each asset during this time.
Together, all these dynamics serve to create new opportunities in the market. Changes in supply and demand, combined with maturing debt obligations, open the door to creative financing arrangements for those with access to capital.
Preferred Equity providers are regularly being accepted as part of the solutions for both owners and debt holders. Here at Goodegg, we are looking at all of these opportunities for our own funds as we continue to deploy capital in the near future.
Overall, we remain bullish on the multifamily market, and we are actively working to make decisions as to how we can maximize returns for all of our investors.
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Deal Underwriting
Even in the face of continued uncertainty and rising interest rates, we remain focused on conservative underwriting practices for all potential investments. As return metrics have continued to tighten, our modeling assumptions must be considered with a much more critical eye.
Although the market expected increased cap rates in early 2023, the market has remained remarkably consistent. As sellers have been unwilling to relinquish their perceived valuations, asset pricing has not matched buyer expectations thus far in 2023.
In other words, sellers are still looking for yesterday’s prices, which no longer make sense in this shifting market. Rather than compromise our standards, we are choosing to hold strong to our high standards, even if that means having to pass on certain deals.
Due to unrealistic seller expectations, combined with unfavorable debt terms, many deals have languished and have simply been removed from the market.
Much like other sponsors in the market, we have seen very few opportunities within the current multifamily market that have enticed our team to act.
Our acquisitions efforts remain constant, and we are engaged with sellers and partners in multiple markets. We are continuing to dig and search for the right deals, but they are few and far between.
Rather than compromise our standards to do a deal that doesn’t make sense, we are holding fast to our strict deal criteria so that you can be sure when we do release a deal, it’s truly a strong opportunity.
We see tremendous value in multifamily over the next few years, but we are not willing to buy until the metrics and underwriting truly show a path to profitability. We are willing to be patient and wait for the appropriate deals to take shape over the coming months.
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download track recordAcquisitions Strategy & Outlook
The current state of the US multifamily market is in a unique place. On one hand, market fundamentals remain robust, with healthy occupancy rates, albeit slightly lower than the record highs previously achieved, and increasing rental prices.
Conversely, rising expenses are impacting the Net Operating Income (NOI), and there is a dislocation in the capital markets.
Owners with long-term financing in place are generally opting to hold their properties, while those with near-term debt maturities are compelled to take action.
Simultaneously, there is a substantial supply of over one million units under construction nationwide. The implications of this influx of supply will vary across different markets, with some experiencing a significant increase in new properties.
Multifamily occupancies in the US have averaged between 93% and 95% in 2023 so far, according to Costar. This range indicates a generally healthy market, although it is slightly below the previous post COVID all-time highs.
Despite the ongoing construction of approximately one million units, there is still a housing shortage in the country. Markets with the highest concentration of new developments relative to existing inventory will likely experience pressure on market fundamentals.
These markets often coincide with strong demographic trends and significant in-migration. Furthermore, while the cost of existing homes has dipped slightly from its peak, housing prices have not sufficiently adjusted to make housing more affordable.
With the increase in borrowing costs, mortgage rates have risen, making homeownership less affordable compared to renting, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council. What that means is that the fundamental drivers of the rental market remain strong despite these challenges.
As mentioned above, looming loan maturities are an issue for multifamily properties. Owners and developers who hold short-term floating-rate debt are confronted with impending maturities that require attention.
The extent to which this situation leads to significant distress remains uncertain. Numerous owners and developers may find it challenging to exit their deals through refinancing or selling their properties, necessitating the exploration of innovative strategies to sustain their transactions.
In total, there are over $1 trillion worth of multifamily loans maturing by 2027. Investors are closely monitoring the delinquency and special servicing rates of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as indicators of market conditions.
Our current strategy taking into account the current state of the market is to focus on current portfolio and refinancings, look for deals with attractive in-place debt financing, and focus on deals with strong markets poised for continued rent growth.
Working hard and maximizing the value within our current portfolio is most important to us right now as expenses rise. As you’ll read below, we are staying on our property managers to make sure they are running our deals as efficiently as possible.
We have also taken an early look at our potential upcoming debt maturities and are putting together strategies for refinancing. Deals with in-place fixed rate debt are still very attractive to us as they provide our investors stability while the capital markets continue to be in flux.
Our goal is to focus on markets where we have already seen success in our own portfolio, such as the South and Southwest, and continue to make new investments in those locations.
By locking in favorable rates on all acquisitions currently in the pipeline, we have been able to protect your investments against current and potential future rate hikes, thus providing stability and predictability for your investments.
Acquisitions In Progress
Candlewood Suites & Holiday Inn Express
– Acquisition In Progress Via Goodegg Hotel Fund I –
Just last week, we announced that we now officially have under contract a portfolio of 2 select-service hotels just 5 minutes from Fort Knox – one of the largest military bases in the country. These hotels will be acquired via Goodegg Hotel Fund I.
Candlewood Suites includes 83 rooms and was built in 2010, and Holiday Inn Express includes 63 rooms and was built in 2007. Both hotels are in an ideal location to serve government contractors, military personnel, and business travelers.
Further, both hotels are fully stabilized, with historically strong performance and are located in a high traffic area. This, combined with the in-progress development of a $5.8B Ford factory nearby, diverse range of local economic drivers, and high transportation connectivity ensure that these hotels will continue to see consistent demand and strong performance.
To further mitigate risk, we will be assuming the in-place fixed-rate debt. The existing hotels in our portfolio produced an average of 11.3% cash-on-cash returns for our investors in 2022, and we expect similarly strong performance for these hotels.
If you’re an accredited investor and are interested in investing alongside us in these hotels, and you can invest via Goodegg Hotel Fund I.
Encore Metro at Millenia
– Acquisition In Progress Via Goodegg Wealth Fund II –
Our acquisition of Encore Metro in Orlando, Florida, is progressing well. Encore Metro is a 215-unit class A multifamily asset built in 2021, and we are purchasing this asset directly from the developer.
We have successfully completed our due diligence on this asset, with green lights all the way. In addition, the appraisal on this asset came in at nearly $5 million above the purchase price, meaning we are buying this asset at a significant discount.
We are assuming the existing loan on this asset, which is a fixed rate HUD loan at an astoundingly low 3.8% fixed interest rate. This is a huge advantage for this deal and a big part of why it’s such a great investment, particularly in the current economic climate.
The ongoing performance of the asset is strong. The HUD loan assumption has taken longer than expected, and thus we’re projecting to close on the asset in September 2023.
Our recent crowdfunding offering – Goodegg Growth Fund I – gave all investors (accredited or not) the opportunity to invest directly into this asset with minimums as low as $10k. Goodegg Growth Fund I was a huge success and filled up at record speed.
It is our goal to continue to offer crowdfunding opportunities moving forward, to open up our investments to all, regardless of accreditation status.
That being said, if you’re an accredited investor and are interested in investing alongside us in Encore Metro, we still have spots open, and you can invest via Goodegg Wealth Fund II.
Goodegg Diversification Fund III
– Indiana Hotel Portfolio Acquisition In Progress –
All of the hotel assets in this portfolio continue to perform exceptionally well under the continued management of our partner, GHC (General Hotels Corporation).
Though the acquisition is taking longer than expected due in part to the loan transfer process, we continue to work closely with the lender to move this deal toward a successful close.
As a reminder for any investors who have invested in this deal, you are already accruing your preferred return, even before the deal officially closes. If you have any questions, please reply to this email.
Once we get the green light from the lender, we will move forward and close the deal as soon as possible.
Please note that we are no longer accepting investments for this offering. However, if you are interested in investing in hotels, read on to learn more about our hotel fund that is currently accepting investments.
Open Investment Opportunities
Goodegg Wealth Fund II
– Open & Accepting Investments | Accredited Investors –
Earlier this year, we launched our latest multifamily offering – Goodegg Wealth Fund II – a diversified multifamily equity fund, which is currently open for investment.
As mentioned above, Goodegg Wealth Fund II is off to a fantastic start with the upcoming acquisition of Encore Metro in Orlando, Florida.
Goodegg Hotel Fund I
– Open & Accepting Investments | Accredited Investors –
Given the high level of success we’ve seen with our hotel acquisitions to date, we are excited to give accredited investors the opportunity to invest in Goodegg Hotel Fund I – a diversified hotel fund that will invest in multiple strategically chosen hotel assets in key markets.
As mentioned above, we officially have the first two hotel assets within Goodegg Hotel Fund I under contract now.
Goodegg Growth Fund II
– Coming Soon | Open To All Investors –
As mentioned above, we are working on putting out more crowdfunding offerings, and the next one will be Goodegg Growth Fund II – an opportunity to invest in the first two hotel assets we’re acquiring via Goodegg Hotel Fund I.
That’s right, this will be a hotel investment, which gives you an opportunity to further diversify your growing portfolio.
More details to come soon!
A Critical Focus On Asset Management
With the continuing shifts in the market, we continue to focus on asset management with our partners by evaluating each property’s performance, including the market and its competitors, each and every week. The markets are constantly changing, and it is vital to review market data carefully and regularly in order to make the necessary adjustments to stay competitive.
Our focus has always been and will continue to be on perpetual improvement. By focusing on our signature 4 P’s of Asset Management – People, Price, Product, and Promotion – we break down each category in an organized approach, which sets Goodegg properties apart at this critical time.
It takes a subpar performance in just one of these categories to negatively impact a property’s performance, which is why we work hard to maintain excellence and balance across all 4 categories.
People
On site Manager, leasing staff, maintenance and grounds
Is the property managed effectively?
- Leasing
- Maintenance
- Grounds
- Marketing
- Ready apartments
Price
Are we competitive within our market?
- Pricing
- Concessions and special offers
- Marketing and advertising
- Comparable offers
- Consistent follow-up
Product
Apartments
- Ready apartments
- Cleanliness, including both looking and smelling good
- Well-maintained
- Unit type availability
Promotion
Marketing & advertising
- Corporate outreach
- Advertising – local and online
- Referral programs
- Apartment locators
Our goal is to provide the highest quality apartments at the most competitive prices. Constantly checking on the four P’s to ensure each section is working as close to its optimum level as possible gives each asset the opportunity for the best possible outcome.
When considering whether and whom to invest with, it’s of the utmost importance that you get a good sense of track record when it comes to asset management, so you can see whether a team can actually deliver on their projections.
As you’ll see with the Goodegg Portfolio, even in the face of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, the assets remain steadfast and resilient, and we continue to beat nearly all pro forma metrics in our current portfolio.
While we are not immune to the rising interest rate environment and shifting lending requirements, we are working hard behind the scenes to explore and exhaust all potential options that we believe will minimize the impact and provide long-term stability to all assets.
It’s important to note that the performance of all assets in the portfolio remains strong. In fact, all our properties have exceeded market occupancy averages when compared to their peers within the last quarter.
Overall, the Goodegg Portfolio continues to outperform their respective markets in terms of occupancy and leased positions.
For any current investors, you can find the latest occupancy metrics for your investments in the new Goodegg Investor Portal.
Note: As of July 2023, we have transitioned to a brand new investor portal, where you’ll find more features and easier navigation to further enhance your investing experience. If you haven’t already, sign up for your account here.
Strong Reserves Bolster The Health Of Each Asset
Even with the strong performance of the assets within the portfolio, we continue to keep our finger on the pulse of the shifting market and continue to monitor the debt and capital markets for opportunities to secure and enhance the assets and debt positions.
As part of this, we are continuing to build up the reserves on each asset, to further bolster the health of each property and thereby further protect your investment.
Nearly all of the assets in the Goodegg Portfolio have reserves above and beyond $1 million, to provide ample buffer and cushion to protect your investment.
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join nowInvestment Opportunities Ahead
As we bring our current acquisitions to closure and look ahead to what may be next, we are excited about the opportunity for creative investment strategies.
We firmly believe in the underlying fundamentals of the multifamily sector, and it will continue to be one of our primary focus areas going forward. In addition, we plan to continue growing our select-service hotel portfolio.
While new multifamily acquisitions are expected to remain somewhat slow over the coming months, we are looking at opportunities for creative investment structures that allow our investors to remain engaged with multifamily in a slightly within a slightly different structure.
We plan to launch an investment fund focused on providing Preferred Equity to in-place assets with qualified sponsors throughout our target markets.
This is an opportunity to deploy capital into a priority position within performing assets that are faced with interest rate exposure and a need to refinance current debt.
We have developed an investment strategy that will provide needed liquidity to highly leveraged assets while creating significant cash flow and long-term returns for our investors.
This is an exciting evolution and we are thrilled to be in the position to provide the opportunity to our investors.
Additionally, we are excited to be able to open new opportunities to our not-yet-accredited investors. In June 2023, we launched our inaugural fund under Reg CF (Regulation Crowdfunding), allowing ALL investors to participate.
We were overwhelmed with the response and the velocity at which our non-accredited investors stepped up with their investment commitments.
The fund was over-subscribed within two weeks of its launch. Based on this success, we are planning a series of additional funds that will be open to non-accredited investors.
The inclusion of all investors in our opportunities is part of our core mission, and we are thrilled to see it come to fruition.
Check Out Our Full Track Record
To get a full picture of our strong track record and extensive experience, we invite you to download a copy of the Goodegg Track Record, which will show you the original projections and actual results on all the deals we’ve exited to date.
Investor Sentiment
We are humbled by the trust that all of you have granted us over the years. As our list of investors has continued to grow, we have worked to maintain personal connections with all of you.
We know that your decision to invest is not taken lightly and we are 100% focused on providing clear, consistent and timely communication.
The engagement from all of you during our Goodegg Live Masterclasses, as well as our Goodegg Popovers, has been amazing. Our interactions with all of you have been consistently positive, professional, and thought-provoking.
As we strive to provide educational resources, we also genuinely enjoy learning from each of you! We are always open to your honest feedback.
New Goodegg Investors
We continue to welcome new investors each and every day. Our track record is always available and speaks to our consistent focus on stable market factors.
On average, our new investor activity has increased by more than 25% over years prior. We are thrilled that so many new investors see our value and decide to partner with us.
Your Friends & Family
We consider it one of the highest honors when you refer your friends and family to invest together with us, which is something so many of you have done. Well over 50% of our investors have taken the step of making additional investments and/or referring new investors to us.
It means the world to us that you continue to trust in us and our team enough that you send people within your network to us.
It’s the highest compliment you could possibly give us, and we take the responsibility of protecting and growing the collective wealth of your friends and family very seriously.
No matter how big we get or how many acquisitions we pursue, we’re never too busy for your referrals, so keep sending them our way!
What Investors Are Telling Us
The consistent refrain from nearly all investors is a desire for consistent cash flow with a conservative approach to risk. This all sums up to a focus on capital preservation! Being investors alongside each of you, we completely understand this sentiment.
Today’s volatile market has created a fair amount of fear for investors at all levels. This is completely legitimate, but it shouldn’t be a block to making decisions going forward.
No matter the current state of the market, opportunities always exist. It simply requires a critical eye and a willingness to explore creative alternatives. We are excited to be in such a position with all of you.
Our goals have remained the same. We aim to create surety and consistency with a long-term view on strong returns on exit.
To that end, and based on feedback from all of you, we are looking at investments outside of traditional multifamily acquisitions, including hotels via Goodegg Hotel Fund I.
We always value your input as part of the Goodegg Community. Please do not hesitate to reach out to anyone on our team. We’re all in this together!
As We Move Forward…
As we continue to face a volatile economy, we stay focused on sourcing strong investments in both multifamily and hotels.
We are bullish on the overall market and have an incredibly strong pipeline of projects that we are considering.
As we fully get into Q3 2023, we are excited about the opportunities ahead. The future for investments is quite strong, and we are thrilled to be in a position to help all of you strategically and intentionally protect and grow your wealth in this quarter and beyond.
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If you’d like to invest with us and haven’t already, be sure to join the Goodegg Investor Club so you can stay in the loop on all future investment opportunities.
And, remember that we have two investments for accredited investors currently open – Goodegg Wealth Fund II and Goodegg Hotel Fund I – both of which are accepting investments now.
And of course, if you know anyone who wants to build their wealth, we would love it if you would forward this to them. Remember – we are never too busy for your introductions and referrals.
Here’s to a very sunny-side-up remainder of Q3 ahead!
Julie, Annie, and The Goodegg Investments Team
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